Thermal energy systems’ resilience is especially important in extreme climates such as arctic or tropical environments. While metrics and requirements for availability, reliability, and quality of power systems have been established (DOD 2020), similar metrics and requirements for thermal energy systems are not well understood. In one of the first attempts to address this deficiency, a study was conducted to better understand the level of reliability required for energy supply systems that will be capable of supporting environmental conditions required for the facility’s mission, the comfort of people, and sustainment of a building in arctic environments under predominant threat scenarios.

This paper is split into two parts. The purpose of Part I is to present the methodology and results of a novel temperature decay test conducted during the winter, along with blower door tests on five representative military buildings in Alaska. In Part II, a building modeling analysis is compared and calibrated to the experimental data collection for the thermal decay test (TDT) and a reliable building model that allows prediction of the maximum time available to repair the heat supply system before the building needs to be evacuated when damage is done to equipment or facilities is described.

The results from the field tests described in Part 1 indicate that the rate of decay is dependent on the time of day (i.e., amount of sunlight) and building features, and will vary within the building relative to wind direction. This study, combined with the modeling analysis addressed in Part II, will provide guidance to building managers on evacuation and sustainment procedures for buildings in arctic climates that are affected by thermal