This paper presents findings from a study that estimates the potential impact of zero energy home (ZEH) technologies on energy consumption through the year 2050 in the United States. The following analytical techniques were used to make estimates: (1) assessment of homeowner perceptions of the concept and willingness to purchase a ZEH through focus group and Internetbased market research, (2) computer optimization techniques to calculate the optimal combination of today’s state-of-the-art energy-efficiency and solar technologies to achieve ZEH, (3) market diffusion models, (4) solar technology price projections, and (5) units added and removed from the housing stock.

The study suggests that research and development support for ZEH in conjunction with state and federal tax incentives can accelerate and significantly improve the energy performance of the residential sector in the United States. For the most optimistic scenario considered, by 2030 energy consumption growth reverses and declines indefinitely due to retirement of older homes and zero energy homes added to the housing stock. With this declining energy consumption trend, the study suggests residential energy consumption in 2050 to be equivalent to 2019 energy consumption levels.

Presented at Thermal Performance of Exterior Envelopes of Whole Buildings X – December 2007

Units: I-P