Energy savings performance contracting (ESPC) is now receiving greater attention as a means of implementing large-scale energy conservation projects in housing. Opportunities for such projects exist for military housing, federally subsidized low-income housing, and planned communities (condominiums, townhomes, senior centers), to name a few. Accurate prior (to construction) estimates of the energy savings in these projects reduce risk, decrease financing costs, and help avoid post-construction disputes over performance contract baseline adjustments. This paper demonstrates an improved method of estimating energy savings before construction takes place. Using an engineering model calibrated to pre-construction energy-use data collected in the field, this method is able to predict actual energy savings to a high degree of accuracy. This is verified with post-construction energy-use data from a geothermal heat pump ESPC at Fort Polk, Louisiana. This method also allows determination of the relative impact of the various energy conservation measures installed in a comprehensive energy conservation project. As an example, the breakout of savings at Fort Polk for the geothermal heat pumps, desuperheaters, lighting retrofits, and low-flow hot water outlets is provided.

Units: Dual